Southern New Jersey is witnessing a significant political transformation as the region prepares for the upcoming 2025 elections. Once dominated by the influential Sweeney/Norcross political machine, the area has shifted dramatically since the defeat of former Senate President Steve Sweeney and the indictment of a member of the Norcross family on corruption charges. This upheaval has led to a noticeable increase in support for Donald Trump and, to a lesser extent, downballot Republicans.
As the New Jersey General Assembly gears up for re-election, the outcome seems predictable, with Democrats likely retaining control. However, the extent of their majority and the overall direction of the state are under scrutiny. The Assembly’s unique election system allows for two representatives per district, with the top two vote-getters serving. Typically, successful candidates capture between 25% and 27% of the vote, making the margins particularly critical.
Key Districts to Watch
In the upcoming elections, several districts will be pivotal in determining the overall political landscape in Southern New Jersey. For instance, the district encompassing Atlantic City is currently represented by Republicans Claire Swift and Don Guardian, who were first elected in 2021. Their challengers include Pleasantville City Council member Joanne Formularo and attorney Maureen Rowan. Despite a narrow Democratic win in the 2024 elections, the turnout for Democrats in off-year elections is historically low, raising concerns about their ability to reclaim this district.
Another crucial area is represented by Democrats David Bailey and Heather Simmons, who face off against Republican challengers Chris Konawel, a Gloucester County Commissioner, and Lawrence Moore, deputy mayor of Harrison Township. This district is emblematic of the rightward shift in Southern New Jersey, having swung to Trump by 7.4 points in the last election.
The exurban sprawl southeast of Camden also presents challenges for incumbent Democrats Dan Hutchison and Cody Miller. They are being contested by educator Amanda Esposito and realtor Jerry McManus. Given the slim margin by which Joe Biden won this district in 2024, it remains a focal point for both parties as they strategize for the upcoming election.
Competitive Races and Implications
One of the most competitive districts features a split delegation with Republican Michael Torrissi and Democrat Andrea Katz serving alongside challengers Anthony Angelozzi and former GOP State Rep. Brandon Umba. This district is regarded as a true toss-up, with outcomes ranging from a split delegation to potential dominance by either party.
Further complicating matters is a district along the coast, where Democrat Avi Schnall faces a tough challenge from former State Rep. Ned Thomson. Despite Trump winning this area by an overwhelming 46.3 points in 2024, Schnall’s representation remains due to the district’s significant Orthodox Jewish population, which historically votes for candidates they feel represent their community.
The political stakes are high as Democrats aim to maintain their foothold in a state that, while typically blue, is showing signs of vulnerability. The performance of Rep. Mikie Sherrill in the 2024 elections will serve as a bellwether for the party’s standing in the region. Should she secure a strong victory, it may bolster Democratic candidates in nearby districts, while a close win could spell trouble and lead to further Republican gains.
As the countdown to the 2025 elections continues, the political dynamics in Southern New Jersey remain fluid. The outcome will not only impact local governance but could also influence the broader political landscape as the nation approaches the critical 2026 House of Representatives elections.
