The escalating cost of child care in the United States is leading many parents to reconsider their plans for expanding their families. According to research by Abigail Dow, a Ph.D. candidate at Boston University, a significant increase in child care prices has a direct impact on fertility rates. Dow’s findings reveal that the price of child care surged by 29% from 2020 to 2024, well above the general inflation rate, making it a critical factor in family planning.
Dow’s research, based on data from the Women’s Bureau at the Department of Labor between 2010 and 2022, indicates a clear correlation between rising child care costs and a decrease in birth rates among American families. Specifically, she found that a 10% increase in child care expenses for children aged zero to two years results in a 5.7% decline in birth rates for women aged 20 to 44. Furthermore, such price hikes lead women to delay their first pregnancies by an average of four months and extend the interval between their first and second children by half a month.
The implications of Dow’s findings are particularly pronounced for women aged 30 and older. As they typically invest significant time and resources into their careers, the financial burden of child care becomes a crucial consideration. Younger women, in contrast, may have less to lose if they temporarily exit the workforce to care for children.
Dow emphasizes that while child care prices are a significant barrier, they are not the only factor influencing fertility rates. Other challenges, such as rising housing and health care costs, also contribute to families’ decisions about having children. A recent survey conducted by YouGov, the Wheatley Institute at Brigham Young University, and Deseret News revealed that a record 71% of respondents believe raising children is unaffordable, marking a 13 percentage point increase from 2024. This sentiment highlights that financial constraints are the primary reason families limit the number of children they wish to have, surpassing concerns about personal desire or partner support.
Government support for parents appears to be gaining traction in public opinion. The survey found a growing majority favoring initiatives such as universal day care and increased tax credits for families, with opposition to such measures declining by 10% percentage points since 2021.
Dow’s research has broader implications, especially as federal pandemic relief for child care providers has ended. States like Arkansas and Indiana have begun reducing support for child care services, leading to increased costs for families. Indiana, for instance, has halted new enrollments in its child care subsidy program and reduced reimbursement rates for providers, resulting in the closure of over 100 facilities. Arkansas has similarly cut reimbursement rates and placed new subsidy applicants on a waiting list.
While Dow acknowledges the importance of child care regulations for health and safety, she argues that affordable child care is essential for families contemplating childbearing. “Anything we can do to make child care more affordable seems important from a policy perspective,” she stated.
The intersection of rising child care costs and declining fertility rates presents a complex challenge for American families and policymakers. As financial pressures mount, the decision to have children becomes increasingly fraught, underscoring the need for comprehensive solutions that address the affordability of child care.
