Two prominent prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, have begun offering odds on the potential deportation of New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani by the end of the year. Born in Uganda and moving to the United States at the age of seven, Mamdani became a naturalized citizen in 2018, which legally protects him from deportation. Despite this, former President Donald Trump has publicly cast doubt on Mamdani’s immigration status.
In a statement made in July, Trump remarked, “A lot of people are saying he’s here illegally. We’re going to look at everything.” He further characterized Mamdani as a “communist,” reflecting their contentious relationship. This rhetoric has led to speculation and betting on Mamdani’s potential deportation, although it is legally improbable.
Current Betting Odds and Market Activity
As of now, Kalshi lists the odds of Mamdani facing deportation at 3%, a decrease from 8.5% on November 5, 2023, the day after the election. More than $10,000 has been wagered on this outcome. In contrast, Polymarket indicates a mere 1% chance of deportation, with approximately $5,753 placed in this market. While these figures suggest a low likelihood of deportation, the willingness of individuals to bet on the scenario highlights ongoing public interest and concern surrounding Mamdani’s political journey.
Political Tensions and Responses
The relationship between Mamdani and Trump has been fraught with tension. Trump has repeatedly criticized Mamdani, threatening to withhold federal funding if he were to win the mayoral race. Just before the election, Trump used social media to express his intentions, stating, “It is highly unlikely that I will be contributing Federal Funds, other than the very minimum as required.”
Despite these threats, Mamdani remains undeterred. In his victory speech, he directly addressed Trump, saying, “Donald Trump, since I know you’re watching, I have four words for you: Turn the volume up.” He expressed confidence that New York City could demonstrate to the nation how to overcome the challenges posed by Trump’s administration.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, the implications of Mamdani’s election and the surrounding odds may serve as a barometer for broader sentiments regarding immigration and political leadership in the United States.
