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Disability Benefit Changes Threaten Red State Workers’ Support

ALLENTOWN, PENNSYLVANIA - AUGUST 03: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters near Air Force One at the the Lehigh Valley International Airport on August 03, 2025 in Allentown, Pennsylvania. Trump spoke to reporters about a range of topics including tensions between Cambodia and Thailand, negotiations with Russia and the Federal Reserve. Trump spent the weekend at his property in Bedminster, New Jersey. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

The Trump administration is preparing to implement significant changes to the eligibility criteria for Social Security disability benefits, potentially affecting hundreds of thousands of workers, particularly in red states. These changes are aimed at modernizing the program but critics argue they will disproportionately impact aging blue-collar workers.

Christopher Tincher, a 55-year-old former manual laborer from Arkansas, illustrates the challenges many face in securing disability benefits. After years of physically demanding jobs, including work in a coal mine and a medical supplies delivery company, Tincher lost his leg due to an infection incurred at work. Despite these hardships, he was initially denied disability benefits by the Social Security Administration (SSA), reflecting a broader trend where approximately 65% of applicants face rejection.

In June 2023, Tincher’s age helped him qualify for just over $1,500 a month in Social Security Disability Insurance benefits after a desperate application that followed his move into a wheelchair. He represents a demographic that could see their support dwindling as the administration’s proposed regulations may redefine eligibility in a way that excludes many older workers.

Proposed Changes and Their Implications

The anticipated changes to the disability program will modernize the job listings used by SSA adjudicators to assess whether individuals can find alternative employment despite physical impairments. In addition, the new regulations would significantly reduce the role of age in determining eligibility, effectively placing younger applicants on equal footing with those over 50. The current framework allows for increased eligibility as an applicant ages, recognizing the difficulties faced by older workers in adapting to new job requirements.

According to estimates from the Urban Institute, these changes could lead to at least 830,000 individuals losing their eligibility for disability benefits, with projections suggesting that as many as 1.5 million could be affected over the next decade. This includes not only the workers themselves but also dependents such as widows and children.

The proposed regulation is expected to be formally presented by December 2023, although some officials have indicated that this timeline may be extended. The draft of the regulation, which resembles a plan that was initially proposed during the first Trump administration, is currently undergoing review.

Criticism and Concerns

Critics of the proposed changes argue that they will exacerbate existing disparities, particularly among workers in states like West Virginia, Arkansas, and Kentucky, where many rely on these benefits for economic stability. These states have some of the highest proportions of residents dependent on disability benefits, contrasting sharply with states that have their own disability insurance programs.

A senior administration official has suggested that the current rules are outdated, claiming that being 50 years old should not automatically qualify someone for disability benefits in today’s job market, where sedentary positions are more prevalent. Yet, many of those affected argue that transitioning to less physically demanding work is not always feasible due to age discrimination and a lack of relevant skills.

The proposed regulations also coincide with broader cuts to the social safety net that have raised alarms among advocates for the disabled. A spokesperson for the SSA confirmed the administration’s focus on what they termed “improvements” to the disability adjudication process but did not address specific concerns regarding the implications for the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program, which supports low-income individuals with disabilities.

George Piemonte, a former president of the National Organization of Social Security Claimants’ Representatives, emphasized that the proposed changes are more than policy adjustments; they could be a matter of life and death for many workers who have devoted their lives to physically demanding jobs.

As the debate surrounding these changes continues, individuals like Tincher remain caught in the balance, navigating the complexities of a system that may soon become more challenging to access. He reflects on the difficulty of seeking help, noting, “Having to ask for help is hard, especially for men of my generation.” The upcoming regulations promise to reshape the landscape of disability support in the United States, raising critical questions about the future of those who have dedicated their lives to labor-intensive professions.

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