Iran’s internet connectivity has seen a partial restoration following a significant blackout that lasted nearly 20 days. This disruption was initiated by the Iranian government in response to widespread anti-government protests. While some internet traffic resumed on October 3, 2023, experts caution that the future of internet access in Iran remains deeply concerning.
According to internet monitoring organizations such as NetBlocks and Kentik, the Iranian regime’s actions have resulted in a troubling trend of digital isolation. During the blackout, the government blocked internet access and international calls, leading to numerous casualties among demonstrators. Digital rights advocates like Amir Rashidi, director of digital rights and security at the Miaan Group, emphasize that the country is on the brink of a new era of severe internet restrictions.
Shifting Tactics and New Restrictions
Rashidi observed that internet shutdowns in Iran typically do not return to pre-crisis norms. For instance, after the protests in 2022 following the death of Mahsa Amini, platforms such as Instagram were permanently blocked. Now, the Iranian government is implementing a strategy known as “whitelisting.” This approach restricts access to the international internet to a small group of individuals with security clearance, effectively censoring the majority of the population.
The implementation of whitelisting marks a departure from previous tactics of blocking specific websites and applications. Instead, it creates a situation where many Iranians remain in the dark, only able to navigate a national internet that is heavily monitored and restricted.
As of the recent restoration, internet traffic patterns have been erratic, suggesting the introduction of a new filtering system that struggles to manage the current demand. Doug Madory, director of internet analysis at Kentik, noted that these fluctuations indicate significant challenges in the restoration process.
Challenges in Circumventing Censorship
The Iranian populace is known for its resourcefulness in evading internet restrictions. Tools like Starlink, a satellite internet service made available for free by Elon Musk’s company, have gained traction among users. However, despite the potential of such technology, only about 50,000 Starlink terminals have been smuggled into a country of approximately 92 million people, according to digital activists cited by FreedomHouse.
The Iranian government has reacted strongly against satellite internet users, imposing severe penalties, including imprisonment, for those caught possessing Starlink terminals. Reports indicate that security forces have actively targeted homes suspected of housing satellite dishes. Moreover, the regime has sought to disrupt Starlink signals, although claims of their capabilities may be exaggerated to discourage users from investing in the technology.
Despite these challenges, experts believe that satellite internet could eventually undermine the efficacy of internet shutdowns. Mahsa Alimardani, associate director of technology threats at the human rights organization Witness, commented on the significant implications of having connectivity independent of state control.
The Economic Cost of Internet Blackouts
Shutting down internet access carries considerable economic costs for Iran, particularly as the country operates largely in isolation from the global economy. The recent blackout was the longest in Iranian history, surpassing the previous record set in 2019, which a former head of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce estimated cost the nation about $1.5 billion.
Alimardani pointed out that while some factions within the Iranian regime benefit from continued internet access, the broader implications of censorship create friction among stakeholders. The complex dynamics of power and economics within the regime suggest uncertainty regarding future policies on internet access.
As the Iranian government looks to tighten its grip on digital communications, experts like Rashidi warn of a future characterized by increased military control and surveillance over internet usage. As the situation evolves, the resilience of Iranian citizens in the face of censorship remains a focal point of international attention.
