San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan has entered the race for California governor, introducing a new dynamic into what has been described as one of the most competitive gubernatorial contests in the state’s history. His candidacy, announced last week, is expected to compel fellow Democrats to reconsider their strategies as they navigate a crowded field of nine candidates ahead of the primary on June 2, 2024.
Political analysts believe Mahan’s presence may create challenges for established Democratic candidates, who risk fragmenting the party’s base. “Mahan upsets the race,” stated David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University. He emphasized that Mahan’s candidacy could prompt pressure on lower-polling candidates to withdraw, thereby consolidating support for a stronger Democratic contender.
As Governor Gavin Newsom reaches the end of his term after eight years, the Democratic contenders have struggled to gain traction in polling. With pressing issues such as high housing costs, homelessness, and an escalating budget deficit, the race has opened a window for Republican candidates, despite the challenges posed by former President Donald Trump‘s unpopularity among California voters.
Polls indicate that upwards of 30% of voters remain undecided, making the primary a competitive arena. Other Democratic candidates include notable figures such as former Congresswoman Katie Porter, Congressman Eric Swalwell, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. The upcoming California Democratic Party convention in San Francisco is expected to foster discussions about candidate consolidation.
Mahan’s entry raises concerns among Democrats regarding vote division, potentially benefiting Republican candidates Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. McCuan noted that discussions about strategic withdrawals may intensify as the primary approaches. Candidates polling in single digits, such as Tony Thurmond and Betty Yee, might soon find their campaigns unsustainable.
Political observers have pointed out that voter support for many candidates is still fluid, suggesting that Mahan’s campaign could shift the dynamics significantly. Former GOP strategist Bill Whalen expressed skepticism about Mahan’s ability to attract votes from Republican candidates, arguing that voters often do not make strategic choices as expected in open primaries.
The competition will also see Mahan facing off against Tom Steyer, a billionaire investor who previously ran for president. Whalen speculated that Steyer may need to reassess his funding strategy now that Mahan has joined the race. Both candidates share similar platforms focused on criticizing the Sacramento establishment, which could lead to a competitive clash.
Steyer’s campaign quickly responded to Mahan’s announcement, framing the race as a choice between a government influenced by wealthy interests and one advocating for working people. “The race for California’s future is coming into focus: Californians will choose between a government captured by wealthy interests and corporations raking in record profits, or one that stands with working people,” stated spokesperson Kevin Liao.
While Mahan faces hurdles in gaining name recognition outside the Bay Area, political analysts believe he could attract support from independent voters due to his moderate stance. According to the Public Policy Institute of California, independent voter registration currently stands at approximately 22%.
Despite the challenges, Mahan’s practical approach to governance may resonate with voters seeking tangible solutions rather than ideological battles. Notably, the political landscape has shifted since 2018, when Newsom was first elected, with affordability and federal policies now playing critical roles in voter decision-making.
The next few months will be crucial for all candidates as they navigate this unpredictable landscape, with Mahan’s entry marking a significant development in the race for California’s governorship.
