The calendar has flipped to July, and in the three weeks since our initial MLB trade deadline Urgency Index, the landscape has dramatically shifted. A major blockbuster deal has already occurred, teams on the fringe have surged forward, and others that seemed like legitimate contenders have experienced freefalls. As we approach July 31, the urgency for strategic trades intensifies across the league.
This updated Urgency Index 2.0 combines immediate needs with projections—some objective, others subjective—of what might change over the next four weeks. Our analysis is spearheaded by experts: Eno Sarris on starters, Tim Britton on bats, and Aaron Gleeman on relievers.
Bats: Teams Seeking Offensive Firepower
Seattle Mariners
Cal Raleigh continues to carry the Seattle Mariners’ offense, boasting an OPS over 250 points higher than any other regular player on the team. While Raleigh’s performance is commendable, he needs support. Seattle has already made changes at first base, moving on from Rowdy Tellez, and is experimenting with a platoon of Luke Raley and Donovan Solano. With Jorge Polanco primarily serving as a DH, there are opportunities to upgrade at both second and third base.
The Mariners are barely holding onto the final wild card spot in a competitive American League. Adding another bat or two could solidify their playoff position, especially if the starting rotation sees positive regression.
Milwaukee Brewers
Initially pessimistic about the Brewers’ playoff chances, recent performances have proven otherwise. With an 11-4 record since our last update, Milwaukee is now vying for the top wild-card spot and the division title. Strengthening the left side of their defensive alignment, particularly at shortstop, third base, or left field, is crucial.
Despite a successful platoon in left field and decent production at third base, projection systems remain skeptical about these players’ future performance. Enhancing the offense could transform the Brewers into a formidable postseason contender.
San Diego Padres
The Padres have slipped out of playoff contention, highlighting an urgent need for improvement in left field. While offensive numbers have improved with Gavin Sheets, defensive compromises and lineup limitations persist. With eight National League teams on track to win 87 games, the Padres must capitalize on available upgrades to remain competitive.
New York Mets
Once boasting a 96.2 percent playoff probability, the Mets have since struggled, with glaring deficiencies in pitching. Despite a strong offense, regression at key positions like third base and catcher has left room for improvement. Adding depth to the infield and potentially acquiring a center fielder could stabilize their lineup.
San Francisco Giants
After topping our previous list, the Giants addressed their first base issue by acquiring Rafael Devers. While this move temporarily resolves their second base concerns, projections remain cautious about their lineup’s overall strength compared to other NL contenders.
Relief Pitchers: Bolstering the Bullpen
New York Mets
The Mets’ bullpen struggled in June, ranking 29th in ERA and Win Probability Added. Despite closer Edwin Díaz’s reliability, the team needs a left-handed setup man to replace the injured A.J. Minter. Reinforcing the bullpen could be a cost-effective strategy to support their high-profile roster.
Philadelphia Phillies
Late-inning relief has been a persistent issue for the Phillies, with the bullpen ranking poorly in ERA and WPA. The return of José Alvarado in mid-August offers some hope, but his playoff ineligibility due to a PED suspension complicates matters. Additional bullpen support is crucial for a team with championship aspirations.
Detroit Tigers
With a comfortable division lead, the Tigers are well-positioned for the playoffs. However, enhancing their bullpen with a veteran high-leverage reliever could improve their chances for a deep postseason run. The focus should be on acquiring pitchers with strong strikeout abilities.
Tampa Bay Rays
Typically among the best, the Rays’ bullpen has underperformed this year. To maintain their competitive edge in tight games, a bullpen makeover, possibly involving both buying and selling, could be on the horizon.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona’s bullpen struggles have been pronounced, with key injuries exacerbating the situation. Rebuilding a unit with a 5.27 ERA poses significant challenges, but improvements are necessary to remain in the playoff race.
Starting Pitchers: Strengthening the Rotation
Chicago Cubs
Despite Shota Imanaga’s return, the Cubs’ rotation remains a concern. With poor recent performances and unfavorable projections, acquiring a playoff-caliber starter is essential. Cubs fans may find themselves rooting against the Rangers to improve trade prospects.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays’ starting rotation has seen mixed results, with some pitchers struggling while others maintain consistency. Upgrading their fifth starter could be key, but the decision hinges on the potential impact on playoff performance.
New York Mets
Despite a strong start, the Mets’ rotation faces challenges with injuries and inconsistent performances. Exploring options to convert young depth into reliable starters could stabilize their pitching lineup.
San Diego Padres
Injuries have clouded the Padres’ rotation outlook. While the return of key pitchers could alleviate some pressure, acquiring a rental arm might be necessary to ensure postseason viability.
St. Louis Cardinals
Surprisingly competitive in their division, the Cardinals could benefit from modest rotation improvements. With multiple positions open for enhancement, even a rental back-end starter could make a difference.
As the trade deadline approaches, teams across the MLB are assessing their needs and strategizing for the postseason. With a dynamic landscape and shifting priorities, the coming weeks promise to be pivotal in shaping the playoff picture.
