Graduation rates for students in Chicago Public Schools (CPS) have reached near record highs, but a significant challenge remains in college completion. According to a recent report from the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research and the To&Through Project, only about half of the CPS graduates who enroll in college will earn their degree within a decade. The overall college completion rate for CPS alumni stands at 48%, markedly lower than the national average of 64%.
Alex Usher, director of data and research at the To&Through Project, emphasized the importance of not just enrolling students in college but also ensuring they complete their degrees. “Getting students into college is a great first step, but starting college and not completing is not a good outcome, for the most part,” Usher stated. He noted that ongoing work is essential to address these challenges.
Each year, researchers calculate a measure known as the postsecondary attainment index. If 100 students were to start ninth grade in CPS today, the predictions indicate that 84 would graduate from high school, 58 would enroll in college immediately, and only 30 would complete a college credential within ten years. These figures are consistent with the previous year’s data.
Barriers to College Completion
While the report did not directly address the reasons behind low completion rates, barriers such as soaring tuition costs, complex program requirements, and limited support systems are cited as contributing factors. The study suggests that these forecasts are merely starting points, with expectations that outcomes will improve as the district continues to develop.
Usher remarked on the potential of the attainment index as a motivational tool: “To me, the real value of the (attainment index) is almost like a rallying point, or a motivating point. The system can, and has changed, and this doesn’t have to be a prediction or destiny.”
Disparities in completion rates further complicate the landscape. In the graduating class of 2018, completion rates for Asian and white women were highest, at 81%, while Black men had the lowest rates at 27%. Black women and Latino men followed at 40%. A recent study indicated that students from low-income families in Illinois are three times more likely to drop out compared to their wealthier peers.
Researchers have pointed out that the types of institutions attended by low-income students can significantly affect their chances of completing college. For-profit colleges, which often lead to higher debt, disproportionately recruit Black and Latino students. Moreover, these groups are overrepresented in community colleges, where they may encounter difficult transfer processes.
Usher highlighted the need for colleges and universities to enhance their support for students. “The student body at a lot of colleges and universities is changing. It’s not what it was 30 or 40 years ago. They need to change in response if we’re going to move these completion rates,” she said.
Impact of the Pandemic and Future Outlook
The class of 2024, which is central to this report, began high school during the COVID-19 pandemic. The sudden shift to remote learning exacerbated existing achievement gaps and contributed to increased absenteeism across the district. Researchers noted that the lingering effects of the pandemic are likely reflected in the outcomes of these students.
Additionally, logistical issues like a delayed release of the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) last year resulted in corresponding delays in financial aid packages. This cohort was also the first to navigate college applications following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to end affirmative action, which may have influenced some students’ perceptions of their place in higher education.
Despite these challenges, there are some positive developments. Among the CPS class of 2024, 66% enrolled in a two-year or four-year college in the summer or fall immediately following graduation, surpassing the national average of 61%. A record number of CPS alumni—7,368 students from the class of 2018—graduated with a degree or certificate this year.
Usher praised the progress made by CPS and the broader educational ecosystem in Chicago. “I think it’s just such a testament to the work that the district, and the wider ecosystem in Chicago has been doing around college enrollment,” she noted.
Over the past decade, CPS has shown significant improvement across various metrics. A decade ago, researchers predicted that only 73% of ninth graders would graduate and 40% would enroll in a four-year college. This year, those figures stand at 84% and 43% respectively. While graduation rates have slightly declined, they remain above the post-COVID low of 82% recorded in 2021.
Usher concluded with optimism, stating, “I don’t think most Chicagoans know how much progress we’ve made in the last 20 years, and even in the last 10 years.”
