Wheat futures are experiencing declines across all three major markets as traders await crucial data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). On Friday morning, the wheat complex showed losses, contrasting with a mostly higher trading session on Thursday. Notably, Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat increased by 7 to 9 cents during Thursday’s trading, while Kansas City Hard Red Winter (KC HRW) contracts rose by 8 to 11 cents at the close.
In overnight trading, there were 56 deliveries for July KC wheat. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Spring wheat encountered mixed results, with September contracts down 1.25 cents while other months posted gains.
The USDA’s Export Sales report released earlier today indicated sales of 567,823 metric tons for the 2025/26 marketing year. This figure represents a decrease of just 3.1% from the previous week but is still more than double the amount sold during the same week last year. South Korea emerged as the largest buyer, purchasing 90,000 metric tons, followed by Japan with 70,000 metric tons and Mexico with 55,900 metric tons. An additional 9,373 metric tons were reported for 2026/27 sales.
USDA Crop Production Estimates on the Horizon
As anticipation builds for the USDA’s upcoming Crop Production data, analysts from Bloomberg predict a tightening in total wheat production by 14 million bushels to 1.907 billion bushels, largely due to reduced harvested acres identified at the end of June. The forecast for winter wheat stands at 1.362 billion bushels, down 19 million bushels from last month, while spring wheat estimates remain under review, and durum wheat is projected at 78 million bushels.
Ending stocks for wheat in the 2025/26 marketing year are estimated at 894 million bushels, reflecting a decline of just 4 million bushels compared to last month. On a global scale, world wheat stocks are projected at 262.5 million metric tons, slightly below the 262.8 million metric tons recorded the previous month, based on the Bloomberg survey.
In Europe, Strategie Grain maintains its estimate for the EU soft wheat crop at 130.7 million metric tons for the 2025/26 marketing year, unchanged from last month. FranceAgriMer reports that the soft wheat crop in France is currently rated at 68% good to excellent, marking an increase of one percentage point from the previous week, with harvest progress reported at 36% complete.
In terms of market performance, as of July 25, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat closed at $5.50 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents, while September contracts were down 3 1/4 cents at $5.54 1/2. Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) wheat closed at $5.14, up 8 1/2 cents, with September contracts down 4 cents. Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) wheat closed at $6.23, showing no change, while September contracts fell 3 1/2 cents to $6.32.
On the date of publication, the author, Austin Schroeder, held no positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data provided are for informational purposes only. For more details, please refer to the Barchart Disclosure Policy.
