CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) announced its earnings for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025 on February 19, 2026, reporting an adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.9 billion. The results reflect strong operational performance and a favorable environment in the global nitrogen market. The company also highlighted a commitment to safety, achieving a record low in process safety events, although it faced challenges due to an incident at its Yazoo City Complex in Mississippi.
During the earnings call, Christopher Bohn, President and CEO, detailed the company’s performance, noting that the full year recordable incident rate was an impressive 0.26 incidents per 200,000 hours worked. The company produced 10.1 million tons of gross ammonia in 2025, which represents a utilization rate of 97%. However, production at the Yazoo City Complex is not expected to resume until late 2026, impacting overall production forecasts for 2026, which are now estimated at 9.5 million tons of gross ammonia.
Strategic Initiatives and Market Dynamics
The earnings report also emphasized the progress of the Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui, with positive milestones achieved throughout 2025. Bohn stated that civil work at the Blue Point site is expected to commence in the second quarter of 2026. The project has secured offtake agreements from new low-carbon ammonia demand sources, as well as financial support from the Japanese government.
CF Industries demonstrated a robust ability to convert adjusted EBITDA into free cash flow, outpacing the material and industrial sector averages. The company generated $2.75 billion in net cash from operations, with free cash flow reaching approximately $1.8 billion. In 2025, CF Industries returned $1.7 billion to shareholders, including over $1.3 billion in share repurchases, representing about 10% of the outstanding shares at the beginning of the year.
Bert Frost, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, discussed the global nitrogen market’s current dynamics, highlighting a tighter supply than anticipated. Despite expectations of new production capacity, delays have occurred, and demand continues to rise, particularly from regions like India, Brazil, and North America. Frost noted that current global urea prices are trading significantly above historical averages, driven by strong demand and constrained supply.
Looking Ahead: Financial Outlook and Market Conditions
For 2026, CF Industries anticipates capital expenditures totaling approximately $1.3 billion, with the company’s share amounting to around $950 million. This includes investments in sustaining capital expenditures for its existing network and funding the Blue Point joint venture. The company has also completed a $1 billion senior notes offering to enhance financial flexibility.
During the call, Rich Hoker, Interim CFO, reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $1.5 billion for the full year 2025, equating to $8.97 per diluted share. In Q4 2025, net earnings were $404 million or $2.59 per diluted share, with EBITDA reaching $731 million for the quarter.
Looking forward, CF Industries remains optimistic about its position in the nitrogen market, projecting ongoing strong demand for nitrogen products. The company is well-positioned to leverage its operational advantages and strategic initiatives to continue creating substantial value for shareholders. The executive team reiterated confidence in the long-term outlook for the global nitrogen market, emphasizing the need for ongoing investment in growth and capital returns.
As the call concluded, Bohn expressed gratitude to CF Industries’ employees for their contributions to the company’s success amidst a challenging market landscape. He remarked on the company’s achievements in operational excellence and decarbonization efforts, asserting a commitment to generating long-term shareholder value.
